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[Raw material pull up! Will the textile industry catch the last bus of last season?]
Release date:[2023/3/8] Is reading[115]次

Crude oil rebound, polyester market will be "anxious"!


U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently made a surprise visit to Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other government officials in Kiev. It also announced that $1.25 billion would be transferred to Ukraine from the latest $9.9 billion economic aid package. Oil prices will continue to be supported by continued aid to Ukraine and geopolitical tensions that are unlikely to cool in the short term.


Meanwhile, the energy "war" continues, with Russia halting oil shipments to Poland and the pipeline expected to supply 1.2 million tons of oil to Germany for the whole year, indicating that the supply side will remain tight, providing short-term support for oil prices. Generally speaking, the crude oil supply end tends to tighten in the case of limited capacity. While the demand side has the opportunity to reach record levels, oil prices still have the opportunity to strengthen further in the afternoon.


In recent 1-2 months, the supply of PTA increased significantly. With the restart of Honggang Petrochemical, Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dahua and other devices, the capacity utilization rate of PTA in February stabilized at about 75%, which increased by more than 10% compared with the low point of the previous year. In terms of new production capacity, Shandong Weilian Chemical has successfully put 2.5 million tons into production. It is currently in parking and ready to restart at the end of this month. Jiatong Energy is running at 90 percent of its 2.5 million ton capacity.


As the temperature rises, the industry will enter the traditional maintenance season, Honggang, Ineos, Yadong, Taihua, Dushan Energy and other facilities are scheduled to overhaul. If the low processing fee situation continues, the enterprise overhaul plan or in advance, the overhaul time is also possible to extend. Therefore, PTA in the second quarter is expected to contract supply, low processing fees under the price support is strong.


Demand returned to normal levels


Downstream polyester, the current operating rate has returned to normal levels. As of February 24, the comprehensive load of polyester was 85.9%, including 72.1% polyester filament, 84.3% polyester staple fiber and 91.1% polyester bottle chip. Terminal weaving, the operating rate has also returned to the normal level, as of February 24, Jiangsu and Zhejiang ammunition comprehensive work increased to 92%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom comprehensive work increased to 75%. The willingness and potential of replenishment after the year are low, and the market perceives that the demand after the year is a little less than expected.


Since this year seems to have heard a lot of price information, open year market also created a "price atmosphere", but such a market deduction after nearly two months, the textile market has to face a real situation: the downstream fire has not been lit up!


After three years of the epidemic, both the country and the residents, "we do not dare to consume, although there are a variety of real estate, automobile and other related policies to boost, but consumer demand and economic recovery still need a long time, domestic demand is slowly recovering, foreign trade orders were" robbed ", the market "anxious" ah, under the cooperation of the leading, drive the positive sentiment of the market, The second half of 2023 can still be looked forward to!


Demand recovery is slow, textile enterprise mentality on the roller coaster!


Now Nike, which has struggled to capture consumer demand, is clearly suffering from high inventories.


Even sportswear giants Nike and Adidas are struggling with excess inventory. Nike currently holds $9.3 billion worth of inventory in its warehouses, with more than 60 percent of its inventory made up of athletic shoes that once brought it huge profits. In the latest Q2, Nike's inventory rose 43% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, down from the previous quarter but still at high levels, according to the earnings report. Nike then slashed prices to reduce inventory, and made more markdown promotions, which eventually squeezed profit margins and "increased revenue without increasing profits."


adidas held $6.7 billion worth of inventory, up 73% from a year earlier, bringing the combined value of the two global giants' inventories to over $10 billion.


Even Chinese sports giant Anta reported a 7 percent increase in inventory to 8.192 billion yuan in its half-year financial report, with inventory turnover up 28 days to 145 days.


In the first half of 2022, XTEP's inventory turnover rose by 27 days to 106 days, the highest since it went public in 2008. If the inventory overhang is not dealt with in time, XTEP's revenue of 10 billion dollars could end in a year.


In addition, the bullwhip effect brought by the continuous interest rate hike in the United States has had a great impact on the decline of global consumption. The overall export in January declined, which also affected the orders of terminal manufacturing. In February, textile orders continued to pick up, but did not appear the market expected explosive growth. It is accompanied by the price of raw materials ups and downs, producers, traders, textile enterprises and investors can be described as a "roller coaster".


From the perspective of terminal weaving industry, the recovery rate of weaving enterprises is still not as good as the same period in previous years, and the feedback of weaving enterprises is limited in the week of new orders, restricting the production enthusiasm of some manufacturers.


From the perspective of the order situation, at present, only domestic trade orders increased slightly, and foreign trade orders are few. Although there was a small increase in the weaving factory's machine production orders in this week, the overall position is still at a low level compared with last year.


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