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[Interpretation of a macroeconomic environment in the textile industry]
Release date:[2022/9/21] Is reading[64]次

Since the beginning of this year, complex factors such as repeated epidemics, long -term geopolitical conflicts, and tightening international financial environment have continued to impact the global economic recovery process. In the third quarter, the overall high -temperature and high temperature and drought in the northern hemisphere have exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand and the slowdown in economic growth. In August, J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.3, a new low in 26 months, only slightly higher than the Rongku Line. Among them, the new order index was 48.2, the market demand continued to be sluggish, and the global economic recovery momentum became weakened. Essence The OECD consumer confidence index in July was 96.2, which has been located in the contraction range for 12 consecutive months. In the third quarter, the WTO global cargo trade barometer index rose to 100 benchmark levels, but below 10 percentage points in the same period last year. Global commodity prices fell slightly compared with the high level in the first quarter, but in July, the primary products and energy prices of IMF still increased by 38.4%and 90.1%year -on -year, respectively, and the inflation pressure has not eased. Nearly 40%of OECD member states CPI increased by more than 10%.


Faced with the three major stress of demand, impact, and weakened expectations, the domestic epidemic situation, and the domestic epidemic situation, and the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the two major super -expected impacts. In the first half of the year, my country's GDP achieved a 2.5%growth, which initially formed an economic bottoming trend. Since July, my country's economy over the influence of the fluctuations of the epidemic and the fluctuation of high -temperature weather, and the economic continuing recovery trend, but the foundation of the recovery still needs to be consolidated. Statistics show that the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide from January to July decreased by 0.2%year -on -year, the total exports (USD valuation) increased by 14.6%year -on -year, and the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 3.5%year -on -year. With 0.1 percentage points; the total profit at the same time decreased by 1.1%year -on -year, and the growth rate fell 2.1 percentage points from the first half of the year. Affected by factors such as the dispersion of the epidemic, the high temperature and rainy weather continued, the power -saving power saving of electricity -saving in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River, in August, the PMI of my country's manufacturing industry continued since July. 49.4%, but still in the contraction range.


Since the third quarter, the off -season market in the textile industry is obvious, the production orders are still insufficient, and the starting rate has remained at a lower level. The price of the finished product has been shocking at a low level after rapid downward decline in mid -June to mid -July. Relieving the pressure on funds, the continued increase in profit pressure. Under this market, the growth rate of industry production and benefits has slowed significantly, and the decline in profit has continued to expand. Recently, electricity restriction measures in various places have been lifted one after another. In addition, near the peak sales season, thick fabrics need to begin to appear in the middle of autumn and winter, and the boost rate of low gauze enterprises for clothing has risen slightly. The off -season market with low demand and downturn and downward price has not yet ended, and companies have generally reduced their expectations for the peak season.


Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the external environment becomes more severe and complicated, and the inhibitory effect of global liquidity contraction on terminal demand will continue. The adverse effects of inflation and high energy prices in some regions on textile and apparel products will appear. Essence The domestic sales of the textile industry will be recovered under the drive season of the autumn and winter consumption season. The recovery of domestic demand will be the key to the industry's operation to the bottom of the industry. The domestic market will become the backbone of the development of the development of the textile industry.


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