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[Raw materials boost the recovery, and the inflection point of demand still needs to wait]
Release date:[2022/5/12] Is reading[51]次

After the May 1st, subject to the boost of crude oil, pure benzene, caprolactam and other nylon raw materials, many nylon yarn factories ushered in a new round of price increases, but from the market feedback, the downstream has not been stimulated by the price increase. Purchasing enthusiasm, in addition to pre-holiday stocking, now a small amount of stocking just needs to be negotiated at a low level. The drag on the demand side is difficult to push market trading prices higher.

In terms of price, the overall nylon filament market is fluctuating within a range this year. Compared with the market price in April, the overall trend is on the rise. As of May 10, 2022, the median market price of POY85D/24F is 17,900 yuan/ton, up from the beginning of the month. 400 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2.29%; the median market price of DTY70D/24F is 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly increase of 2.76%; the median market price of FDY70D/24F is 18,800 yuan/ton, an increase from the beginning of the month 500 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 2.73%;

After the holiday, the market rebounded significantly, and crude oil once again hit the price of 110. Due to the devaluation of the RMB, the price of benzene in the external market rose compared with the previous period. The domestic spot of pure benzene exceeded 9,000, and the listing rose to a high level during the year. Under the continuous loss of nylon upstream caprolactam market, it also follows the cost to open an upward channel. Since April, the caprolactam enterprise set has been shut down for maintenance, and the supply has decreased. The restart process in May is unknown, and there are still plans for factory shutdown and maintenance in the later period. The overall supply of caprolactam remains on the sidelines. low level.

As of May 10, the spot price of caprolactam in the East China market was 14300-14400 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was delivered. All parties have a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. High-priced transactions are difficult and industry players lack confidence in the market outlook, and the financial risks brought by high-priced raw materials are also equivalently high. In the short term, crude oil prices remain high and fluctuate, and CPL has a strong demand to turn losses driven by costs, and there is no risk of a sharp decline for the time being. On the cost side, we need to pay attention to the price guidance of crude oil, pure benzene, caprolactam and chips.

Recently, the raw material inventory and order days in the downstream terminal industry have shown a double decline. On the one hand, since the beginning of the year, the geopolitical crisis has pushed up oil prices, the prices of various chemical fiber varieties have pushed up, and downstream users' high price resistance has heated up, and procurement has maintained rigid demand. The geopolitical crisis has also made international freight continue to rise, increasing the cost of terminal clothing and textile exports, resulting in foreign orders. reduced situation. On the other hand, the overseas epidemic situation is severe, and the recurrence of the epidemic in some parts of the country has suppressed the confidence of market participants, and the epidemic has affected the logistics and transportation situation in some areas. After the May Day, the domestic terminal demand continued to be sluggish, and the grey cloth inventory was high and difficult to digest. The downstream terminal market has always been in general demand and purchased on demand, and the overall transaction is not optimistic. Downstream end customers lack confidence in the market outlook and are resistant to high-priced supply.

Under the constraints of demand, the inventory pressure of nylon filament is also increasing. The production reduction of small and medium-sized factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has reached a low level, and the start-up of large factories in Fujian is slightly higher. At this time, the raw materials are high and rising, and inventory transfer will be formed in the follow-up or to a certain extent. The follow-up production and sales remain to be seen. The devaluation of the RMB stimulates foreign orders to enter the replenishment period, but the volume of orders placed is small. Whether the demand side can recover smoothly still needs to be time verification.

To sum up, the current demand in the downstream terminal market is sluggish, and the overall market production and sales rhythm is general. All parties are cautious about the market outlook. The firm price of raw materials is still a strong support for the nylon market. It is expected that the short-term nylon filament market transaction will be difficult to recover, and the market price may show a trend of rising → stalemate → slightly falling. There will be a great improvement. The downstream rigid demand orders will be placed. If the weaving demand is expected to increase, the impact of external shocks will also be weakened, and market confidence will also be significantly improved.

Dongyang Lai Chi Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of more than 40 million square meters of elastic non-woven production line, SSS nonwoven production line, SMS non-woven production line, and a series of elastic deep processing equipment, professional production and sales nonwoven fabric, spinning Nonwoven fabricelastic nonwoven fabric, medical nonwoven fabric, is your trusted nonwoven manufacturer .

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